The minimum planning horizon is knowing what you will write about tomorrow before you go bed tonight. Today I came down with a cold and am pretty sure I will not be able to write tomorrow. Having made the decision, I'm now certain I will not write tomorrow. This is really at the core of the discipline. If you're going to write tomorrow, you know you will; if you're not going to write, you know you won't. You don't think or hope you'll write. You know you will. Likewise, I go to bed tonight knowing I won't. That's just the other side of the same discipline. If it's highly unlikely that you'll write, decide not to. Don't hope you will. There's no particular nobility in that sentiment.
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